Germany’s Far Right Storms to Historic AfD Victory, but Falls Just Short of Power Ulrich Siegmund

Germany’s political establishment has suffered a stunning new blow after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, winning around 44% of the vote and more than doubling its result from the previous state election.

The breakthrough is one of the most significant advances for Germany’s far right since the Second World War. Yet the AfD has been left tantalizingly close to but still short of the power it wanted.

Preliminary results indicate the party will take 39 of the 83 seats in Saxony-Anhalt’s parliament, three short of the 42 required for an outright majority.

That leaves Germany facing a potentially explosive political showdown over whether the AfD can turn its overwhelming electoral victory into control of a state government.

AfD Smashes Through the Political Firewall

The result represents a dramatic transformation of Saxony-Anhalt’s political landscape.

The AfD secured roughly twice its 2021 vote share, when it received 20.8%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), meanwhile, suffered a devastating collapse from 37.1% in 2021 to around 17–18.5%.

AfD supporters erupted in celebration as the results came in, with lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund declaring the result historic.

“We have made history in this country,” Siegmund said after the vote.

The scale of the victory has intensified pressure on Germany’s long-standing Brandmauer, or political firewall, under which mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD.

Three Seats Separate AfD From an Outright Majority

The numbers now create a political puzzle that could dominate German politics for weeks.

The AfD has 39 seats, while the other parties would need to construct an alternative governing arrangement without cooperating with it. A coalition involving the CDU, Social Democrats and Greens would not have enough seats on its own, while adding the Left Party still leaves that bloc short of the 42-seat threshold.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly cleared the 5% threshold and could hold the balance of power.

Together, the AfD and BSW could potentially command enough seats for a majority, but BSW’s position does not automatically translate into an AfD-led government. Mainstream parties have also rejected cooperation with the AfD.

Siegmund had previously insisted that he wanted to govern alone rather than enter a coalition.

AfD’s Hard-Line Agenda Faces the Test of Power

The AfD’s campaign focused heavily on immigration, deportation, national identity and opposition to Germany’s existing political direction.

Siegmund has campaigned for tougher migration policies and what the party describes as a “remigration” agenda. The AfD has also pushed for closer relations with Russia, opposed further military support for Ukraine and attacked policies it argues put German interests second.

The party’s regional program includes significant changes to education, culture, public broadcasting and state institutions.

Germany’s domestic intelligence authorities have classified the state’s AfD organization as right-wing extremist, a designation the party rejects. That classification has become one of the central arguments used by mainstream parties to maintain the firewall.

Merz Takes a Massive Political Hit

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the Saxony-Anhalt result is particularly damaging.

His CDU has governed the state for years, but its support has collapsed as the AfD has surged.

The result is likely to fuel fresh questions about Merz’s national leadership, particularly as the AfD has also made substantial gains in nationwide polling.

The election therefore extends far beyond Magdeburg.

It sends a warning to Berlin that voters who are angry about immigration, economic insecurity, government policy and Germany’s direction are increasingly turning toward the far right.

Europe Is Watching Germany’s Far-Right Surge

The implications are also being felt across Europe.

Far-right and nationalist parties elsewhere have celebrated the AfD’s breakthrough, while centrist European politicians have warned that its rise could deepen divisions over immigration, Russia, Ukraine, European integration and security.

Germany remains one of the European Union’s most influential political and economic powers. A stronger AfD could therefore affect debates extending far beyond domestic German politics.

But the biggest question is now brutally simple:

Can the AfD actually govern?

With 39 seats, the party has won an extraordinary mandate from voters but not the outright majority it wanted.

For Germany’s political establishment, that may be the most uncomfortable part of all.

The AfD has not taken power. But it has come closer than ever.