The French political landscape was shaken this week by the conviction of Marine Le Pen, the long-standing leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, on charges of embezzling European Union funds. The ruling disqualifies her from running for public office for five years, a decision that could dramatically alter the course of France’s 2027 presidential election.
While Marine Le Pen has vowed to appeal the decision, the verdict has sent shockwaves through French politics. Will this end her career, or will it fuel a stronger far-right movement?
A Shocking Verdict with Major Political Implications
Marine Le Pen’s conviction comes at a time when she appeared to be gaining significant political momentum. A recent opinion poll suggested that she could secure up to 37% of the vote in the next presidential election—a dramatic increase from her 2022 performance. However, the criminal court’s decision immediately bars her from running in 2027 unless she successfully overturns the ruling. The court found that she had misused European Union funds, a serious charge that could reshape the leadership of the far right in France.
Despite the ruling, Marine Le Pen’s RN party remains defiant. Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old RN president and Marine Le Pen’s protege, dismissed the sentence as a “democratic scandal”, arguing that the conviction was politically motivated. This is dangerous, and this also translates into a far right-wing consolidation. There are already comments made by far-right heroes like Elon Musk and their leader, President Donald Trump.
Many political analysts fear that the ruling could actually strengthen Marine Le Pen’s appeal, as she may be viewed as a victim of the establishment.
In a report in Al Jazeera, Rim-Sarah Alouane, a French legal scholar, warned that Le Pen and her supporters will likely weaponize the trial to rally their base. “There is a risk that she will be seen as a martyr, as in the victim against the system,” Alouane told Al Jazeera. “She and her party will use this trial to fuel their narrative.” If Marine Le Pen can successfully frame herself as a political outsider persecuted by the system, she may still wield tremendous influence over the 2027 election, even if she cannot run herself.
With Le Pen’s political future uncertain, attention has turned to Jordan Bardella, the young and media-savvy leader of the RN. “Bardella has really mastered social media,” said Diane de Vignemont, a political journalist. “He is young enough that he doesn’t have too many scandals yet.”
Bardella has helped the far right gain traction among younger voters, particularly through his strong presence on TikTok. In just two years, the proportion of 18- to 24-year-olds supporting RN doubled—a sign that the party is broadening its appeal beyond older, traditional far-right voters.
However, critics argue that Bardella lacks the experience and political skill of Le Pen. “Jordan Bardella is much less competent than Marine Le Pen,” Colin said. “He hasn’t done many debates yet, and those that he has done haven’t gone well for him. Le Pen knows that Bardella has far lower chances of being elected than she does.”
If Le Pen’s appeal fails and her disqualification is upheld, Bardella will likely lead the RN’s charge in 2027—but his ability to unite and energize the party remains uncertain.
A Turning Point for French Politics
The conviction of Marine Le Pen places her among other high-profile French politicians accused of financial crimes, including former President Nicolas Sarkozy and ex-Prime Minister François Fillon.
While some see this as a sign that France’s judicial system is holding politicians accountable, others fear that the far right will capitalize on this moment to fuel anti-establishment sentiment.
With the French Parliament divided and another snap election possible, Le Pen’s future—and the future of the National Rally—remains highly unpredictable. If she wins her appeal, she could return to the political arena stronger than ever. If she loses, the far right will be forced to find a new leader—and fast.
