Covid-induced deaths in India may surpass 5,000-mark in Mid-May: US Study

Even as India is grappling with the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic, a study by an American university has warned that country’s daily tally of covid-induced deaths may peak to 5,600 by May 10. In a study titled ‘COVID-19 projections’ published April 15, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington said over 3 lakh people may lose their lives to COVID-19 between April to July alone.

The study, however, pinned hope on India’s nationwide vaccination drive to tide over the second wave of the pandemic. The study, which is based on the current rate of infections and deaths in the country, projected that nearly 85,600 lives could be saved by vaccine rollout by the end of July.

It is said the COVID-19 pandemic is going to get worse in the country in the coming weeks, adding that effective vaccination rollout can help tide over the pandemic. The country also logged a record 3,46,786 new infections pushing its coronavirus case tally to 1,66,10,481 during the last 24 hours. India’s Covid-19 death toll stands at 1,89,544. The country’s active caseload rose to 25,52,940 on Saturday, according to Union health ministry data. The active cases comprise 15.37 per cent of the total infections.

Another study carried out by scientists at Indian Institute of Technology said, the ongoing second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India may peak between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh total ‘active’ cases and decline steeply by the end of May.

In predicting that the active cases would go up by about 10 lakh by mid-May before sliding, scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur and Hyderabad applied the ‘Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’ (SUTRA) model. The scientists also said Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana may see a high of new cases by April 25-30, while Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh might already have reached their peak in new cases.

Also Read: 

US under pressure to help India tackle surging second wave of COVID-19 infections

“We have found that there is a reasonable chance that the active cases in India could peak sometime between May 11-15 with 33-35 lakh cases. It is a sharp slope, but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction,” Manindra Agrawal, professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, told news agency Press Trust of India.