In a tale reminiscent of David and the Goliath, Delhi-based weather forecasting agency Skymet has locked horns with the India Meteorological Department by challenging the latter’s banal monopoly in context to issues regarding climate and weather in the country.
While IMD firmly believes that India is expected to receive less than normal levels of rain during the monsoon months of June and September, Skymet has retorted by saying that the state-run government body is highly mistaken. Skymet says that farmers need not worry as India will have adequate rainfall.
In the past period of 2002 to 2013, India has faced four drought years that were not predicted by the IMD during its April forecast. It was only last year when IMD announced in April that rainfall would be ‘below normal’ – a prediction which did come true. This year, IMD’s reports are clashing with the young Skymet’s positive-sounding weather report.
“It is too early to say things like drought but we’re fairly confident that El Nino conditions [a weather phenomenon with negative consequences for the monsoon rains] will prevail and there don’t seem to be other factors yet that will strengthen the monsoon,” said DS Pai, chief forecaster, IMD.
Indian agriculture is highly dependent on the rain since 3/5th of the irrigation depends on it. On a bigger picture, the monsoon rainfall affects the rural economy directly. If farmers are informed of an oncoming drought, they will tend to spend less in commodities like fertilisers and refrigerators. A bad spell of monsoon also forces the government to import crops like pulses, oilseed and sugar. All these factors add up to a rise in inflation.
Skymet has been predicting forecasts since only three years, which is just a fraction compared to IMD’s century-long tenure. Last year, both bodies said that the country would receive less than normal rainfall and they were both found eventually true. Prior to that, in 2013, both correctly predicted adequate rainfall. However Skymet was found more precise with its mark.
The predicted advent of monsoon is the month of June which is just around the corner. With clashing views, only time will tell if farmers will face delight or plight this year.
