An out of control large Chinese rocket, about 100 feet tall and weighs 22 tons, being tracked by the US Space Command is set to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere this weekend. Even though it poses very little threat to personal safety, experts are worried about the debris plunging toward Earth
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Astrophysics Centre at Harvard University, told CNN the risk that there will be some damage or that it would hit someone is pretty small, not negligible, it could happen – but the risk that it will hit you in incredibly tiny. “And so I would not lose one second of sleep over this on a personal threat basis.”
The European Space Agency has predicted a risk zone that encompasses any portion of Earth’s surface between about 41.5N and 41.5S latitude, which includes virtually all of the Americas south of New York, all of Africa, and Australia, parts of Asia south of Japan and Europe’s Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece. This range is in part, a result of the rocket’s blistering speed; even slight changes in circumstance can drastically change its trajectory.
McDowell said they expect the rocket to re-enter sometime between the 8th and 10th of May. “And in that two-day period, it goes around the world 30 times,” he highlighted. “The thing is travelling at like 18,000 miles an hour. And so if you are an hour out at guessing when it comes down, you are 18,000 miles out in saying where.”
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The astrophysicist pointed out that if one wants to bet on where on Earth something’s going to land, it always comes to the Pacific. “Because Pacific is most of the Earth. It’s that simple.” McDowell said norms have been established. “There’s no international law or rule, nothing specific, but the practice of countries around the world has been ‘Yeah, for the bigger rockets, let’s not leave any trash in orbit in this way’.”
But Earth’s orbit is littered with hundreds of thousands of pieces of uncontrolled junk, most of which are smaller than 10 cm.
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